The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is assessing production caps for Nigeria and Libya, whose production has been increasing in the last months, contrary to the OPEC's 2016 agreement to cut output and impact crude oil prices upwards. The two countries were exempted from any production cut, due to civil unrest and production troubles.
Despite their structural production problems, Libya and Nigeria have benefited from a political stabilisation and from the production cut exemption: the oil output in Nigeria and Libya has increased significantly since October 2016, the month which OPEC used as a benchmark to base its production cuts. Nigeria's output rose from 200 kb/d in October up to 1.6 mb/d, while Libya's output soared from 400 kb/d in October 2016 up to 1 mb/d as of today.
Production growth is now likely in both countries since attacks on hydrocarbon infrastructure have calmed down.
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