Nigeria's updated NDC targets 32% GHG emissions cut by 2035 compared to 2018

Nigeria has officially submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), outlining near-term emission reduction targets and reaffirming its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060 and to reduce fugitive emissions from the oil and gas industry by 95% by 2050. The country has set ambitious goals to reduce absolute emissions by 168.2 MtCO₂eq in 2030 (a 29% reduction) and 184.9 MtCO₂eq in 2035 (a 32% reduction), relative to the 2018 baseline emissions of 573.5 MtCO₂eq. Nigeria maintains its 20% unconditional emissions reduction target by 2030 and defines the conditional reduction as 80% of the 29% and 32% reductions in 2030 and 2035, respectively.

By 2030, the LULUCF sector (Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) is expected to contribute the largest share of emissions reductions, accounting for 73.7% of the total reductions (347.9 MtCO₂eq), primarily through reduced deforestation and lower fuelwood consumption. The energy sector, including buildings and transport, is projected to contribute by 22% (134.6 MtCO₂eq). The targets set in NDC 3.0 also contribute to the objectives of the Mission 300 Compact, an initiative launched by the World Bank and the African Development Bank. Key national goals under this framework include: achieving 100% electricity access by 2030, reaching a 50% share of renewable energy in the generation mix by 2030, and maintaining a 9% annual growth rate in new electricity connections until 2030.

In its previous update submitted in 2021, Nigeria committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% unconditionally (by 91 MtCO₂eq to 362 MtCO₂eq) and up to 47% conditionally (by 213 MtCO₂eq to 240 MtCO₂eq), relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030 (453 MtCO₂eq). It also revised the base year for GHG assessments from 2010 to 2018.