Kenya targets 100 GW of installed capacity by 2040

The Kenyan Ministry of Energy has unveiled the Kenya Energy Sector Roadmap 2040, which aims at accelerating the country's low-carbon transition while ensuring the delivery of power that is reliable and affordable to all. Specifically, the plan intends to increase Kenya's installed capacity to 100 GW by 2040. To do so, the country will have to instal an average of 5 GW/year between 2022 and 2040, attracting more than US$300bn worth of energy investments, including through the mobilisation of innovative green financing and domestic funds to de-risk local projects and stimulate investor appetite.

Over the last decade, Kenya added an average of 150 MW/year. At end-2021, the country's installed capacity stood at 3 GW, of which 860 MW of geothermal (28%), 830 MW of hydropower (27%), 610 MW of oil (20%), 440 MW of wind (15%) and 150 MW of solar (5%). Around 500 MW of projects are currently under construction, including 60% of geothermal, and more than 11.8 GW under development, with 29% of geothermal, 21% of gas and 20% of wind.

The country also targets a 100% access to electricity by 2030 via decentralised solutions and a 50% reduction in households' electricity bills by 2040. In addition, the authorities plan to end reliance on backup generators by replacing them with non-emitting solutions and to halve unsustainable household biomass use by 2040. The households electrification rate in Kenya increased from 19% in 2010 to 75% in 2020. In 2020, the share of biomass in the country's primary energy mix was two thirds. Biomass (wood at 75%) accounted for 96% of the residential sector's final energy consumption in 2020.