Japan forecasts that 43 GW of its thermal capacity could go offline by 2030

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry forecasts that 43.3 GW of Japan’s thermal capacity could go offline between fiscal years 2021 and 2030, assuming that all facilities are decommissioned after operating for 45 years. This forecast is more than 50% higher than previous estimates and represents about 23% of Japan’s total installed thermal capacity (190 GW in 2021). Nearly half the thermal capacity that could go offline are gas-fired power plants (21 GW).

In July and August 2022, Japan announced its intention to restart nuclear reactors, as well as develop and build next-generation nuclear power plants, in a major shift from the country's post-Fukushima disaster policy. This shift could allow Japan to compensate the loss of thermal capacity and avoid power grid strain in the middle and long-term.