Germany is on track to achieve climate GHG targets by 2030

According to the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), Germany is on track to achieve its 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goals thanks to the strong expansion of renewable energies, grid modernisation and emissions trading. GHG emissions declined by 3.4 % to 649 MtCO₂e in 2024 (compared to 2023), thanks to a sharp decline in the energy sector (-17.6 MtCO₂eq) despite the nuclear phase-out. The UBA estimates that the goal to reduce GHG emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels is within reach through the country’s existing climate policies thanks to achievements in the energy sector, as emission reductions in the transport and building sectors are still insufficient under the Climate Protection Act (KSG), which aims to reach 438 MtCO₂eq in 2030, including 118 MtCO₂eq in industry, 108 MtCO₂eq in the energy sector, 85 MtCO₂eq in transport, 67 MtCO₂eq in buildings and 56 MtCO₂eq in agriculture. This would putt the country at risk of also missing its targets for the EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), projecting a 226 MtCO₂e total gap for the 2021-2030 period. 

The transport sector's emissions are estimated at 143 MtCO₂e of total emissions (-1.4%) and is set to fall short of the cumulative annual emission volumes between 2021 and 2030 by 169 MtCO₂e. The building sector saw a reduction of 2.4 MtCO₂e (-2.3%) to 100.5 MtCO₂e, missing its 95.8 MtCO₂e target for 2024. By 2030, the sector will fall short of the cumulative annual emission volumes between 2021 and 2030 by 110 MtCO₂e. Meanwhile, the industrial sector registered a 0.1% increase to 153 MtCO₂e due to the iron and steel and chemical industries, and the UBA expects that the sector will exceeds its target cumulatively compared to the 2024 projections of 73 MtCO₂e.

Despite the achievements on GHG emissions reductions by 2030, the UBA considers that the country needs to implement further measures to reach permanent greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045.