The French gas transmission and distribution network operators, namely GRTgaz and TIGF for transmission and GRDF and SPEGNN (group of 29 local gas distribution companies) have released their gas demand forecast for France between 2015 and 2035.
According to GRTs and GRDs, gas consumption should decline from 461 TWh in 2015 to 385 TWh by 2035, which would represent a 16% decrease; in the low scenario, gas demand would fall to 336 TWh (-27%) but it could rise to 516 TWh (+12%) in the high scenario. The decline in gas consumption is mainly attributable to expected gains in energy efficiency and the deployment of ever more efficient and economical equipment.
However, the development of new uses for gas (conversions in industry, biomethane, LPG, etc.) is expected to counterbalance this trend: renewable gases should cover at least 10% of gas consumption by 2030 and gas should gain momentum due to its lower emissions of CO2 and particles. Gas consumption in the residential sector should also increase with nearly 1.4 million of new homes heated by gas by 2035 and more than 100 million square meters of new service sector offices heated by gas by this date. The level of demand for gas will also depend on the development of the energy mix for the production of electricity, most notably the share of nuclear and of hydraulic dam activity.