EIA forecasts 2% increase in US gas production in 2017 (+1% for oil)
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 mb/d in 2016, and should continue to grow to 9 mb/d on average in 2017 and to 9.3 mb/d in 2018, pushed by a higher federal offshore Gulf of Mexico production. Rising tight oil production, related to increases in drilling activity, rig efficiency, and well-level productivity, should also contribute to this expected increase in 2017 and 2018.
Dry gas production is estimated to have averaged 72.4 bcf/d (2.04 bcm/d) in 2016, a 2.4% decline from 2015; this would be the first decrease in annual gas production since 2005. However, gas production should recover in 2017 (+1.9%) and in 2018 (+3.8%).
Where electricity generation is concerned, the share of gas is estimated to have surpassed that of coal, with 34% and 30% of the power mix, respectively. The generation shares of coal and natural gas are expected to be roughly equal in 2017, as both fuels are projected to generate about 32% of electricity. In 2018, gas and coal should generate 33% and 32% of electricity, respectively. The share of nuclear (around 20% in 2016) may decline to 19% in 2018, while the share of hydropower should remain between 6% and 7% from 2016 through 2018. That of renewables should grow from 8% in 2016 to 9% in 2018.
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