Egypt unveils NDC 3.0 with new emissions reduction targets for 2035

Egypt has presented its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), outlining plans to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by over 110 MtCO₂eq by 2035, mainly from its oil and gas, power, and transport sectors, compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. This represents a 26% cut in GHG emissions in 2035, compared to the BAU scenario.

• Under the new plan, GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector are expected to reach just over 690 ktCO₂eq in 2035, down from 2.74 MtCO₂eq (~75% reduction) under the BAU scenario. 
• In the electricity sector, GHG emissions are expected to reach 154.5 MtCO₂eq, representing a 38% reduction (94.7 MtCO₂eq) compared with the BAU scenario (249 MtCO₂eq). 
• In the transport sector, emissions are projected to decline by 13.3 MtCO₂eq, or approximately 8%, against BAU levels (170 MtCO₂eq), reaching 157 MtCO₂eq in 2035.

In its previous NDC update in 2023, Egypt raised its GHG emissions reduction target to 37% by 2030, up from 33% in the 2022 update, with both targets measured against a BAU scenario. Egypt’s electricity sector is advancing steadily towards the 2030 target of 37% GHG emission reduction (-80.5 MtCO₂eq) by 2030 and should reach 134 MtCO₂eq in 2030, while GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector should reach 893 ktCO₂eq and those from the transport sector, 115 MtCO₂eq by 2030.

Egypt also aims to increase its clean energy capacity to achieve a 42% share of renewable energy in the national electricity mix by 2030, with further additions to installed capacity planned by 2035. The country will shift from fossil-fuel based energy systems to CO₂-free energy sources (solar, wind, hydropower and nuclear) and seek to reduce the overall energy intensity of the system. Egypt will also continue to support supply-side energy efficiency measures (conversion of gas-fired power plants to CCGT, replacement of ageing power plants) and accelerate energy efficiency improvements across key demand sectors, such as residential, industrial, commercial, and transport.

Since 2013, gross GHG emissions are fluctuating at around 320 MtCO₂eq/year, according to our data (Enerdata Global Energy & CO₂ data).  Similarly, CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion, which accounted for 63% of gross GHG emissions in 2024, are relatively stable since 2013, averaging 200 MtCO₂/year. In 2025, these emissions were more than 3 times higher than in 1990.

CO₂ intensity per GDP has declined by 3%/year since 2010. In 2025, this CO₂ intensity is significantly lower than both the world average (-47%) and the level in non-OECD countries (-57%).