The International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO 2009) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. The report is available on: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/0484%282009%29.pdf
Main key results are:
- The current economic downturn is dampening near-term world energy demand growth. In the IEO2009, worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44% between 2006 and 2030 as economic recovery spurs future demand growth.
- Despite the big decline in oil prices after July 2008, the IEO2009 reference case reflects a return to higher oil prices as economies recover from the current recession and demand for oil returns. Prices rise to $130 per barrel (real 2007 dollars per barrel) in 2030.
- Unconventional sources, primarily from non-OPEC sources, provide nearly half of the growth in global liquids supply between 2006 and 2030 in the reference case. The rest comes from conventional sources, primarily from OPEC producers in the Middle East.
- Renewables are the fastest-growing energy source in the IEO2009 reference case, but fossil fuels still provide over 80% of marketed energy in 2030.
- Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 29 billion metric tons in 2006 to 40 billion metric tons in 2030 under current laws and policies.
- Economic growth and oil prices, which can be significantly impacted by above-the-ground factors, are two major sources of uncertainly in all energy projections. The high and low oil price and economic growth cases in IEO2009 illustrate the impact of different growth rates and oil prices on projected energy trends.