Canada's crude oil production expected to increase by 1.3%/year by 2035
According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), crude oil production in Canada is expected to increase by 1.27%/year until 2035. Production should increase by around 3%/year until 2021 before slowing down to +1%/year through 2035. The growth will come from Western Canada (+1.4%/year), whereas production should decline by 0.1%/year in eastern Canada. Oil sands, which account for 2/3 of the current production, will remain the primary driver for growth, despite a continuous decline in investments, due to regulatory and policy challenges: investments in oil sands is expected to decline for the fifth year in a row in 2019, from C$34bn (US$25bn) in 2014 to around C$12bn (US$9bn) in 2019. However, oil sands production is expected to surge by 46% by 2035. In the short term, oil sands production growth should average 4%/year over the 2019-2021 period.
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