The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) has released long-term gas production outlook for Canada. Marketable gas production is expected to decline in the short term due to continued low prices, from 15.9 bcf/d (450 mcm/d, or 164 bcm/year) expected in 2020 to 15.6 bcf/d (441 mcm/d, or 161 bcm/year) in 2025. However, gas production should then rise to 18.1 bcf/d (512 mcm/d, or 187 bcm/year) in 2030, 20 bcf/d (566 mcm/d, or 207 bcm/year) in 2035 and 21.4 bcf/d (606 mcm/d, or 221 bcm/year) in 2040, in line with the increase in gas prices. Overall, the CER expects gas production to increase by 35% between 2020 and 2040.
The increase in gas production should come from the Montney Tight formation, whose gas production should double between 2020 and 2040, from 6.6 bcf/d (around 68 bcm/year) to 13.6 bcf/d (150 bcm/year). British Columbia should continue to post the fastest growth in production but Alberta should remain the largest gas producing province, while gas production from Saskatchewan should gradually decline.