Enerdata has been selected by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) to support the update of the retail fuel cost methodology used in Ireland’s National Energy Modelling Framework (NEMF). This work will contribute to the robustness and transparency of long-term energy projections, which underpin Ireland’s energy and climate policy planning.
Retail fuel costs are a key input to the modelling framework, allowing the endogenous assessment of consumer choices and subsequent technology uptakes shaping the future of energy systems. SEAI’s existing methodology, while effective, needed to evolve to better reflect price volatility, policy-driven components (such as subsidies and carbon taxes), and sector-specific dynamics.
Enerdata’s team will review the current approach and propose an enhanced methodology based on best practices and literature. The new framework will improve the modelling of both historical and projected retail prices, with particular attention to managing price shocks and integrating future policy changes. The work will also explore the feasibility of extending the methodology to biofuels, aligning production cost data with retail pricing logic.
The deliverables include a documented methodology, benchmarking against historical Irish price data, and a Python-based implementation compatible with NEMF. Weekly progress meetings with SEAI will ensure collaborative development and validation throughout the project.
This assignment is built on Enerdata’s previous work with SEAI and leverages its extensive experience in energy price modelling, econometrics, and policy analysis for public institutions across Europe.