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Model for calculating scenarios and abatement costs for the Région SUD

As part of its objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the Région SUD aims to prioritise measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector, considering their associated costs.

To achieve this goal, the Région SUD needs to construct Abatement Cost (AC) curves based on three contrasting decarbonisation scenarios. These ACs enable the identification of transport-related measures that will have a significant impact between 2020 and 2050, both in terms of the number of tonnes of CO2 avoided and the economic costs involved.

In developing the calculation tool for AD, we collaborated with the region and a scientific committee to address the following key questions:

  • What changes in mobility does the Région SUD want to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050?
  • What measures will be implemented to monitor trajectories from 2020 to 2050?
  • How much energy will be saved, and what reductions in GHG emissions will result from these interrelated measures?
  • What investments will be necessary, what will the operational costs be, what will the direct or induced economic benefits, and particularly, what impact will this have on public health?

Consequently, the Région SUD commissioned Enerdata's modelling expertise to support them in the development of these ACs. We have accumulated substantial experience in modelling energy consumption and GHG emissions, with a particular focus on scenarios related to carbon neutrality, especially within the transport sector. For this project, we leveraged our method for assessing the impacts on energy consumption and GHG emissions resulting from interlinked measures.

For instance, we accurately assessed the effects of reducing car traffic simultaneously with the transition from internal combustion vehicles to electric engines. The LMDI effects decomposition method was applied to analyse the interactions among 11 measures.

Enerdata relied on its robust network of scientific experts to validate the methodological choices, enabling the development of an operational tool for the Région SUD, which can be utilised autonomously.

Throughout the project, we led a panel of experts in transport and abatement costs to develop an Excel-based tool for generating energy-GES-cost transport scenarios for 2050. This tool embeds three scenarios involving eleven regional measures, as well as numerous assumptions such as passenger and freight mobility, technological developments, impacts on energy consumption and GHG emissions, and cost-benefit considerations, including externalities. Our experts subsequently trained the Region SUD's staff, giving them the skills to autonomously produce their own scenarios.

We delivered a comprehensive model to the région SUD, named NOTOS, which enables them to compute various energy-GHG scenarios for the transport sector and to obtain carbon AC curves that can serve as decision-making tools for public policies.