NaTran commissioned Enerdata to establish a precise view of the drivers influencing the evolution of gas demand over the recent historical period and up to the medium-to-long term (2035).
The study, conducted between July and September 2025, covers the whole of French industry across its most significant gas-consuming sectors, such as petrochemicals, primary metals, and agri-food.
The analysis focused on key questions:
- How can the decline in gas consumption during the energy crisis, followed by its subsequent stability, be explained?
- Why have the trends been so contrasting across different industrial sectors?
- How can cyclical factors be clearly distinguished from structural factors?
To answer these questions, Enerdata, in partnership with Naldeo, conducted interviews with industrial players (energy procurement managers, industrial directors, and more) and catalogued the drivers of gas consumption evolution. Enerdata then analysed the effect of each factor on the level of activity, energy savings, and the substitution of gas with other energy sources.
Thanks to this decomposition of effects, we were able to explain the reasons for the variation in gas demand for each industrial sector, to which we also added heating networks.
By integrating the perspective of the industrial stakeholders interviewed (budgeted investments, evolution of manufacturing processes, exposure to competition, and more), Enerdata projected these effects over the long term to obtain a detailed forecast of gas demand for each sector and for French industry as a whole.