As part of a study financed by the French Development Agency (AFD), Enerdata will provide the Pakistani Ministry of Climate Change and the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) with support on the elaboration of long-term emissions trajectories, which will be used as inputs for the revision of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Pakistan.
Modelling will be undertaken using the EnerNEO tool, which had already been developed for Pakistan in 2017 in a previous capacity building assignment. The model covers all aspects of the energy sector and the corresponding emissions, and will be upgraded to include GHG emissions from the agriculture, land-use and forestry sectors (with the help of Enerdata’s partner Solagro) and further additional features for the economic assessment of long-term scenarios, which are of importance in Pakistan. The tool is implemented in Excel and includes several user-friendly interfaces, making it perfectly suited for such capacity building works.
The objectives of the project will be to co-construct long-term scenarios, including considerations on the energy system and on the agriculture and forestry, leading to various GHG emissions trajectories for Pakistan. Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) will also be implemented in the tool, in order to analyse costs associated with energy transition trajectories. These scenarios and the analysis of their comparative results will then be used by the Pakistani stakeholders as input material for the revision of the country’s NDC.
The project was successfully launched over the summer and collaboration has started between Enerdata’s experts and their Pakistani counterparts. Two on-site missions are planned over the course of the project, which should run until the first quarter of 2021. The main upcoming tasks are historical data collection for the tool, model developments to integrate agricultural emissions and to enable for MACCs calculations, the development of scenarios and capacity building.