The Moroccan government is preparing its contribution to the 2023 Conference Of Parties (COP 28). The country requires contrasted scenarios and associated sectoral decarbonisation plans, describing the implications of a reference scenario, an enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and a Net Zero scenario. Through this project, the country aims to develop a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS).
The project is supported by the Agence Française pour le Dévelopment (AFD) and the tasks are carried out by Enerdata in collaboration with the Stockholm Energy Institute US (SEI US). The NDC is updated with the latest governmental plans accross various sectors to build an updated NDC+ scenario using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. Furthermore, the first Net Zero emission scenario is produced by compiling governmental plans and necessary additional measures discussed with Moroccan stakeholders. The resulting scenarios are shared with a wide group of stakeholders to ensure a consensus on the assumptions behind the ambitious undertaking.
Enerdata’s team engages their energy expertise to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all sectors within the economy, to develop a high-quality Net Zero scenario. This analysis encompasses transports, buildings, industry, agriculture, energy supply and waste (including the forests and biomass sector through a partnership with Solagro). The contract involves recognised experts in these fields. Enerdata brings from its past experience with Morocco, notably for the Vision Maroc 2050, a qualitative description of decarbonisation plans set out in 2020. This is a strong asset for this project, which goes further by preparing a quantitative modelling analysis.
Leveraging its recognised modelling expertise and tools, Enerdata’s initial task is to validate the energy sector modelling work conducted by SEI US. A technical note will be prepared to identify recommendations for improving the modelling process.
Additionally, Enerdata will carry out an energy analysis of each scenario, specifically drafting chapters of the LT-LEDS report that assess the impacts and implications for each sector. Sectoral decarbonisation plans will be created to evaluate the technical and technological implications for the sectoral actors.
Lastly, Enerdata will actively participate in technical coordination meetings involving Moroccan ministries and various stakeholders from specific sectors, contributing their expertise to each step of the project.