Clean Power Plan could cut US coal production to late 1970s level

The Clean Power Plan proposed in June 2014 by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to limit CO₂ emissions from existing thermal power plants (including steam generating, integrated gasification combined cycle, or stationary combustion turbines) is expected to reduce domestic coal production: in 2024, coal production could fall to less than 800 Mt, i.e. its level in the late 1970s, and resume gradually thereafter, without ever exceeding its 1980s levels. Carbon constraints would particularly affect western coal production (including the Wyoming Powder River basin): by 2024, coal production in this area would be 34% (214 Mt) lower than in the Base Policy case; by 2040, it would be only 110 Mt lower (19%) but would remain below its 2013 level. In the Illinois and Gulf lignite basin (Interior region), coal production would be 19% lower (46 Mt) in 2024 compared to the reference case; it would recover after 2024, reaching 211 Mt in 2040 (88 Mt lower than the reference case). For the Appalachian region, coal production should be 46 Mt (19%) lower by 2024 compared to the Reference case, with total Appalachian production hovering around 200 Mt thereafter.

Coal production is expected to increase after 2024 due to a rising power demand and a combination of increasing natural gas prices and growing renewable capacity translates to increased utilization at existing coal plants, even after significant amounts of coal capacity are retired.