According to forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), gas-fired power generation should reach a record level in 2016, increasing by 4% on 2015 to 3.8 TWh/d (around 1,390 TWh/year). Monthly gas-fired generation is expected to reach record highs in July and August, when weather-related demand for air conditioning increases electricity demand.
Gas-fired generation first surpassed coal generation on a monthly basis in April 2015. Gas-fired generation has surpassed coal-fired generation in most months since then and is expected to continue to exceed coal generation through the remainder of the year, ultimately providing 34% of the United States's electricity generated in 2016. Coal's share of the 2016 U.S. electricity generating mix is expected to be 30%, nuclear, 19%, and renewables, 15%.
After 2016, the share of gas in the US power mix should erode for several years, as it competes with renewables and as gas prices rise. However, its share in the power mix should grow again around 2020 and should dominate the power mix for the next two decades until 2040.
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