Up to 50% of the global car fleet could be electric* in 2050
Based on the latest update of our EnerFuture scenarios (January 2018), the share of electric vehicles in the total global car fleet could reach up to 44% in 2040 and more than 50% in 2050. These levels are achieved in our Ener-Green scenario (strong decarbonation, compatible with a 2°C temperature growth limitation); in Ener-Blue (NDCs objective achieved, compatible with a 4°C temperature growth limitation), this share hits 24% in 2040 and 33% in 2050. In 2016, with 2 million electric cars, the share of electric cars in the total car fleet reached only around 0.2%.
Stock of electric and hybrid cars
With 16% of the total CO2 emissions, road transportation will hence play a key role in limiting and reducing CO2 emissions. Electric cars and other decarbonated EV technologies will contribute to limiting both GHG emissions and local air pollution by displacing gasoline and diesel consumption. In 2040, up to 13 Mbl/d oil consumption could be avoided in Ener-Green (20% of the daily oil production) thanks to electric and hybrid vehicles.
*EnerGreen scenario (2°C compatible), including electric and hybrid cars
Discover the EnerFuture service: a long-term forecast (to 2050) of demand, prices, and CO2 emissions by sector and for all energies, plus power generation capacities and production levels by fuel. Three distinct scenario reflect different potential policy developments.