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Global energy forecasting yearly update

5 Feb 2014

Enerdata releases the yearly update of its global energy forecasting service EnerFuture

Enerdata is proud to announce the release of the yearly update of our global energy forecasting service EnerFuture. Our three scenarios have been completely redesigned to explore contrasting energy futures. Our clients value the transparency of our modelling methodology, description of assumptions and drivers.

Scenarios:

enerdata scenarios icones

  • Balance: the outlook based on current policies and trends

 

 

  • Emergence: the outlook with stringent climate policies, efforts on energy efficiency and a real emergence of renewable technologies

 

 

  • Renaissance: the outlook with strong efforts in the exploitation and production of unconventional oil and gas resources

 

 

 

Key findings:

  • Expected economic recovery will drive up energy consumption, predominantly in emerging economies
  • Emerging economies have a much larger potential to reduce their energy intensity
  • By 2020, Non-OECD emission reduction efforts will catch up then exceed those in advanced economies
  • Climate policies will substantially decrease coal share in the power sector, even with CCS deployment
  • 35% of power will be generated from renewable sources in the EU (Emergence)
  • 42% of the cumulated emission reduction effort in EU-27 will come from RES deployment
  • Optimistic resource assumptions and moderate production costs lead to an oil production (Renaissance)
  • With less tensions on oil markets, oil demand increases substantially in Non-OECD (Renaissance)
  • Optimistic shale gas development would boost USA gas supply, but also consumption – keeping gas independence out of reach

More information about 2035 Energy Scenarios: Understand the Energy Future

Case Study – Oil Resources:

 

In Renaissance’s favourable conditions, China creates 38% (+604 Mtoe) of global liquid fuel demand increase. Driven by its dynamic transport sector (3%/yr), China catches up with USA oil consumption around 2025.

This drives strong increases in OPEC’s swing production (between 45-55% of supply in 2035 in all scenarios), but has little effect on North America’s cost driven production.

In the meantime, OECD countries’ oil demand decreases or remains marginally stable in Renaissance, with large savings realized in transport.

 

More information about 2035 Energy Scenarios (Download publication with slides analyzing figures of this 2035 Energy Scenarios release).