The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that gas-fired power generation in the United States will increase by an average 1.3%/year until it reaches 1,600 TWh in 2040. This growth will be fed by a strong increase in domestic gas production (+56% from 2012 to 2040) and is spread throughout the Lower 48 states, and the reasons for the growth vary by region.
For the United States, increasing natural gas supply results in unexpected future growth in natural gas-fired electric generation, particularly after 2020. Total U.S. natural gas production increases 56% from 2012 to 2040, largely because of the development of shale gas, tight gas, and offshore natural gas resources.
The three regions with the highest growth in natural gas-fired generation, SERC (South East US, excluding Florida), RFC (Mid-Atlantic and Midwest) and WECC (Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and south-western United States), also have the highest overall amounts of coal-fired generation. Coal-fired generation still grows significantly in SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC) and ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC), despite significant retirements of coal-fired capacity, and the increased cost of building new coal-fired facilities. In the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), natural gas-fired power competes with renewable sources for future electric power demand, while in the Texas Reliability Entity (TRE) region, natural gas accounts for almost all the growth in new generation.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case