According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Africa Energy Outlook, the strong economic growth and energy consumption increase in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000 (+45%) is expected to continue by 2040 (+80%). Power generation in this area should increase fourfold to 385 GW with half of the growth in power generation coming from renewables. By 2040, the electrification rate in rural area should increase to 70% thanks to mini-grids and off-grid systems, while modernised central systems should improve urban electricity supply: about 950 million people should gain access to electricity (though 530 million should remain without electricity). The share of bio-energies in energy supply should decrease from above 60% to less than half in 2040.
Gas production is expected to rise to 230 bcm in 2040, pulled by Nigeria and Mozambique (60 bcm in 2040) and by Angola and Tanzania to a lesser extent (20 bcm each). Nigeria will remain the largest oil resource in sub-Saharan Africa, but might be overtaken by Angola has the largest producer due to regulatory uncertainty and oil theft in the Niger Delta. Coal supply should increase by 50% by 2040 to 325 Mtce, concentrated in South Africa, followed by Mozambique. Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to have a marginal contribution to global energy-related CO2 emissions, with about 3% of the total in 2040.