According to a 2016-2020 plan released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China, Chinese crude oil production should contract by 7% by 2020, compared to the previous five-year plan. The crude oil production would average 200 Mt by 2020 - around 4 mb/d - compared to the 215 Mt planned in the 2011-2015 plan.
The decline in production would be due to an expected fall in the largest and oldest wells, whose production costs are too high for the current low oil price context. Over the January-November 2016 period, production dipped by 6.9%, at 182.91 Mt, i.e. below 4 mb/d. China aims to reach an oil transportation capacity of 650 Mt/year for crude (around 13.1 mb/d) and 300 Mt/year for refined products by 2020. Where oil products are concerned, the "national five" grade for gasoline and diesel should be rolled out as of 2017 and would be followed by the "national six" as of 2019.
According to the NRDC, gas supply would rise from 134 bcm under the 2012-2015 five-year plan to 220 bcm by 2020. The earlier target of 30 bcm of shale gas (13.6% of total gas production) is maintained. The government will also prioritise the expansion of LNG terminals and the development of new transport capacities: gas pipelines capacities will exceed 400 bcm/year.