According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), crude oil production is expected to increase by 28% over the next 15 years, reaching 4.9 mb/d by 2030 (up from 3.8 mb/d in 2015); 8% less than the forecast made in 2015. Total volume after imported diluent is added to production is expected to increase 37% over the next 15 years, growing to 5.5 mb/d by 2030. Increased oil production will require the development of new transportation infrastructures, which are currently matching oil production levels (nearly 4 mb/d each).
Oil sands will remain the primary driver for growth in Canadian crude oil production: by 2030, oil sands are expected to produce 3.7 mb/d (down from 4 mb/d by 2030 forecast in 2015), i.e. more than 1.5 mb/d over current production levels. More than 0.85 mb/d of oil sands supply will be available by 2021.
Between 2021 and 2030 supply from Canada’s oil sands is forecast to grow further, more than 0.7 mb/d, requiring additional transportation infrastructure.
Conventional oil production in Western Canada, including condensates, will decline from 1.3 mb/d in 2015 to 1.1 mb/d by 2018 and is expected to remain relatively stable to 2030.
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